Uma estranha parceria

Strange Bedfellows
What's behind the enduring alliance between Syria and Iran?
Por Daniel Byman ###

The Middle East is home to many unusual alliances, but one of the oddest is the enduring partnership between Syria and Iran. Syria portrays itself as a champion of secular Arab nationalism, although in practice it is a minority-dominated military dictatorship. Iran, in contrast, rides under the banner of revolutionary Islam, although as a Persian country, it is often at odds with the Arab world, particularly since the vast majority of Iranians are Shiites, while most Arabs are Sunnis. Syrian President Bashar Assad's father and predecessor, Hafez Assad, gunned down thousands of revolutionary Islamists in the 1970s and early '80s to prevent an Islamic revolution in Syria. Iran's religious elite has often criticized Arab leaders as despots who have turned away from true Islam—a description that could easily apply to Assad's Syria.

(...)

Hezbollah's foreign backers may be the key to ending the current crisis. President Bush's private aside to British Prime Minister Tony Blair at the G8 summit captured an essential truth. Not realizing a microphone was turned on, Bush remarked, "See the irony is what they need to do is get Syria to get Hezbollah to stop doing this shit and it's over." As Bush noted, Hezbollah is often more responsive to the needs of its foreign patrons than to those of its Lebanese supporters. Western pressure on Damascus and Tehran, while difficult to assert, may eventually lead to a settlement.

Driving Damascus and Tehran apart in a more fundamental way, however, will be extremely difficult. Syria and Iran continue to share strategic concerns regarding Israel, Iraq, and the United States. Moreover, Washington has little leverage with either regime. Both have proved resilient against internal foes, and the United States is militarily and diplomatically stretched in Iraq and elsewhere. The friendship between Iran and Syria is not akin to the United States' relationship with close allies such as the United Kingdom, but their common interests are more than enough to keep these strange bedfellows close and cuddly.