25.7.05

Ainda sobre Bush e John Roberts

For with his nomination of John Roberts to the Supreme Court, the president consciously chose to avoid battle with the Left. As he did not want a fight, Bush named a conservative without a single scar from the culture wars and no record of having served. He chose an establishment-conservative, not a warrior-conservative.###

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Faced with questions such as whether Roe v Wade was wrongly decided, will Roberts confirm "settled law"? Or has he the convictions of an Antonin Scalia, a William Rehnquist or a Clarence Thomas, to re-examine and reverse settled law that violates the Constitution? Will he look to precedent or back beyond precedent to the original intent of the Founding Fathers?

We do not know. For neither Roberts' resume nor his brilliant career provides conclusive evidence. For there is simply no record of his having ever, in 30 years in the law, rolled up his sleeves and plunged into any social or ideological brawl over issues like affirmative action or religious rights.

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President Bush must know that his legacy is at stake in how Roberts votes. Whether he succeeds in reshaping the court -- where Ike, Nixon, Ford, Reagan and his own father all failed -- now depends on Roberts. If he joins the Scalia-Thomas-Rehnquist wing, conservatives will praise the Bush nomination forever. If Roberts goes wobbly, as O'Connor and Anthony Kennedy did, the president will be seen as having failed.

For Bush the stakes could not be higher. For even with O'Connor's departure, Chief Justice Rehnquist at 80 and ailing, and Justice Stevens at 85, he is not likely to get more than three nominations before his time is up. To remake the court, all three must be in the Scalia-Thomas mold. One mistake and all is lost.