Timor, Austrália e a ASEAN

Timoribund. Por Yang Razali Kassim.###

Timor's civil war is a tragic story that puts an immediate test to the relevance of ASEAN at two levels. The first is that of the ASEAN defense ministers meeting (ADMM) which emerged last month as a new forum for security in the region. The second is that of the larger ASEAN grouping as the primary facilitator of peace in Southeast Asia and the Asia Pacific. But the test is most severe on Timor, or East Timor as it was formerly known. Can it survive as a nation-state? And should it fail, how will that affect ASEAN as a grouping?

Timor as a failing state

Timor is the youngest member of the United Nations (UN) as well as one of the poorest countries in the world. Despite the discovery of oil in the Timor Sea, such potential wealth has flowed neither to the Dili government, nor to the Timorese people. That potential wealth has also attracted the strategic attention of Australia, which has always maintained an interest in East Timor even before it fell into the hands of Indonesia in 1975 following the exit of Portugal as a colonial power.

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Yet, if Timor collapsed as a state, no-one is to be blamed but the Timorese themselves. And the tipping point would be the current leadership crisis, if not power struggle, in Dili. It would be disingenuous for anyone to point an accusing finger at Jakarta. In fact, the Indonesians have been studiously staying out of harm's way, lest they be accused of instigating the current civil strife.

It is actually in the interest of many parties that President Xanana Gusmao and Foreign Minister Jose Ramos-Horta have asserted their leadership. At the very least, this will prevent the disintegration of the Timorese state. For Indonesia, a stabilization of Timor will prevent unnecessary distraction for the Jakarta government, which already has its hands full with domestic challenges, such as the Yogyakarta disaster. For Australia, it will prevent skepticism that Australia has always wanted Timor to fall under its sway. But a failed Timor state, as Defense Minister Nelson said, could also be a haven for crime and terrorism that could threaten the region.

For ASEAN, the failure of Timor will not make the regional grouping look good at all. ASEAN cannot afford to go down in history as having failed to step in to help stabilize the small country in its hour of need.